Statistics on 2026 ACA enrollement
June 14, 2026
Some temporary tax credits for the Affordable Care Act expired last year, and KFF Health News released a plethora of statistics to paint a picture of how the expiration of those subsidies affected enrollment. Perhaps most compelling is that "People with incomes above 400% up to 500% FPL [federal poverty level], who represented just 3% of 2025 sign-ups, accounted for 27% of the drop in sign-ups from 2025 to 2026." 400% of the federal poverty level is "where eligibility for premium tax credits ends" (also known as a subsidy cliff). Another statistic is that even though "Plan sign-ups fell by over a million to 23.1 million people during the 2026 Open Enrollment Period," that drop does not count people who were automatically enrolled, but ultimately do not pay their premiums. One estimate is that the number of people who enrolled and will actually pay their premiums "could decline by between 17% and 26% in 2026 compared to the [2025] number." These statistics may be the result of another statistic that "Premium payments from enrollees increased by an average of 58%." Another statistic is that "From 2025 to 2026, the average deductible in the ACA Marketplaces has grown by over a thousand dollars per person, a 37% increase, from $2,759 to $3,786," which "marks the steepest increase ever in the average Marketplace deductible since the markets launched in 2014."
These numbers demonstrate that health insurance remains expensive for many Americans. If persistent, the rise in uninsured will likely affect more than just those who cannot afford health insurance. For example, emergency rooms might close if they become highly unprofitable if those who are are without health insurance visit in much greater numbers and do not pay.