Effects of a looming $1 trillion reduction in Medicaid funding
January 04, 2026
The budget passed in July of last year cut Medicaid funding by about $1 trillion over ten years. Large numbers can be abstract, but KFF Health News reported on how the looming cuts (along with shortfalls in state budgets) are affecting behavioral health therapists. In North Carolina, for example, therapists treating autism expect a 10% rate cut, while in Nebraska, the anticipated rate cuts might be more than 30%. Funding for autistic patients can also limit the covered number of hours of treatment in a week. The article profiled some very real concerns from families. Interestingly, leadership of one organization of behavioral health therapists seemed to think that the rate cuts were appropriate. The CEO of that organization believes that the treatment plan should vary more widely, based on patient needs.
From a policy perspective, the right level of reimbursement can be difficult to figure out. Setting the rate too high can lead to inefficiencies and diminishing gains, and setting the rate too low can leave problems untreated (potentially incurring higher longer-term costs). What makes this decision especially difficult is that the professionals who are likely in the best position to assess the efficacy of treatments are the therapists themselves, creating a conflict of interest. Nevertheless, when patients who need treatment are unable to get treatment, supply is likely too low, meaning that the reimbursement rate is inadequate.